Module Objectives

The course of Observation and Prediction of Environmental Change aims to introduce the students to the basic notions of environmental change, and the methods used to assess and predict change.

The objectives of the course are dual: i) it aims at supporting the students with theoretical knowledge on the notions of environmental change and its assessment and prediction; ii) and providing them with the necessary knowledge and tools to assess, measure and predict change. The ultimate goal of the course is to use the above-mentioned knowledge towards a more informed decision-making and change management.

Course Content

Theory and practicals: Types of environmental change, natural processes and ecosystem services. Anthropocene, social-ecological systems, planetary boundaries, carrying capacity. Adaptation and resilience. Methods of observation and assessment of environmental change (field work, earth observation, participatory mapping). Environmental change indicators – basic principles of development, use and interpretation. Models of environmental change – the modelling process. Use of simple models of description and prediction (agent-based modelling, Bayesian belief networks) in different systems (marine, terrestrial). Scenarios of future global change (e.g., IPCC). Criteria of comparison and selection of methods and models for change observation and prediction.

Teaching and Assessment

The course lasts for 13 weeks and is taught for 2 hours per week. It consists of lectures which are combined with practical applications of theory. Some seminars with invited speakers are also planned. The assessment is based on a written report (70%) and its oral presentation (20%) as well as the peer review by the rest of the class (10%).